Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
ahead cannot clearly higher minds rates rule rushing
With anticipations of higher rates still clearly in the minds of buyers, we cannot rule out fence-sitters rushing ahead of higher rates.
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
basis currently demand fall high higher housing increase move remaining seeing seen starts today trend unable versus
While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.
anytime consumers costs disappear economy energy higher labor likely markets seem soon taking toll
In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
companies finished higher hit labor offset prices products profits question raise unit
The big question now is how much companies will be able to raise prices for finished products to offset the hit to profits from higher unit labor costs.
bets capacity damage gasoline higher powerful prices stay storm wait
It's a wait and see. If we get another powerful storm that does damage to refining capacity in particular, I think all bets can be off if gasoline prices will go higher and stay there.
autumn companies costs economic finished goods growth higher likely pass pressure winter
Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.
aggressive business consumer effort energy fail higher largely pass prices proves strapped
An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.
adjusted based claims growth hurricane job jump point stronger weekly
We would not jump to any conclusions based on these numbers, particularly as the weekly jobless claims figures, adjusted for hurricane effects, point to considerably stronger job growth than reported.
home pessimism reasonably reasons
There are reasonably deep-seated reasons for pessimism on the part of home builders.
expect focused language people rest surprise took update word
Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
core drift expect good inflation obviously slow
While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.