Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
basis currently demand fall high higher housing increase move remaining seeing seen starts today trend unable versus
While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.
autumn companies costs economic finished goods growth higher likely pass pressure winter
Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.
bets capacity damage gasoline higher powerful prices stay storm wait
It's a wait and see. If we get another powerful storm that does damage to refining capacity in particular, I think all bets can be off if gasoline prices will go higher and stay there.
companies finished higher hit labor offset prices products profits question raise unit
The big question now is how much companies will be able to raise prices for finished products to offset the hit to profits from higher unit labor costs.
ahead cannot clearly higher minds rates rule rushing
With anticipations of higher rates still clearly in the minds of buyers, we cannot rule out fence-sitters rushing ahead of higher rates.
anytime consumers costs disappear economy energy higher labor likely markets seem soon taking toll
In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
aggressive business consumer effort energy fail higher largely pass prices proves strapped
An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
basis message nearly points raising trying
I think they are trying to say that they can still do their tightening 25 basis points at a time, but they still have a long way to go in raising rates. Essentially, the message is, 'if you think we're nearly done, think again'.
compared hard imports large near rate slow term
It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
fed inflation officials slowing sort sounds worried
It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,