Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
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It's really suggesting the best of both worlds for the stock market. What's not to like?
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The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
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The Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage data in the coming months.
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The Fed tipped its hat to the fact that growth has slowed a bit, and blamed it on energy prices,
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In the third quarter, trade will resume its role as a weight on growth, but we are still likely to see a robust G.D.P. picture.
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If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.
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Housing has peaked and we're expecting some moderate weakening in 2006. It's starting to turn into a buyers' market, with fewer buyers chasing more homes at these mortgage rates.
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Housing has peaked and we're expecting some moderate weakening in 2006.
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I don't see the comments from these two representing a change in the Fed's policy. Everyone knows that rates this low can't last, but the same issues remain -- 'When do you raise rates? What is the right timing'?
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The Fed comments were fairly unsurprising. They indicated that there is more tightening ahead, and that the pace will be determined by upcoming data.
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The information in the report is considered dated because the current focus is on the extent of the damage to the nation's energy and trade infrastructure and therefore on the lasting nature of the effect Hurricane Katrina.
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An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.
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The January blowout was no doubt mostly a function of record warm weather enticing shoppers out of their homes in much greater numbers than normal for the month.