Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
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It's a wait and see. If we get another powerful storm that does damage to refining capacity in particular, I think all bets can be off if gasoline prices will go higher and stay there.
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Well, with gasoline well over $3.00 a gallon in most places when this survey was conducted, it is little wonder that consumers were cranky,
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We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
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I think they are trying to say that they can still do their tightening 25 basis points at a time, but they still have a long way to go in raising rates. Essentially, the message is, 'if you think we're nearly done, think again'.
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We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
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While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.
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It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
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It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,
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It's really suggesting the best of both worlds for the stock market. What's not to like?
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It was a good solid number, maybe not as high as some people were hoping, and not as bad as bonds had feared,
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Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.
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The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.