Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
fed inflation officials slowing sort sounds worried
It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,
consumer core fed focusing growth inflation labor lately level news quite side stage
The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.
core drift expect good inflation obviously slow
While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.
benign dollar far imported inflation prices reading worry
There's not much to worry about as far as imported inflation is concerned. For as long as the dollar hangs in there, we should see a benign reading for import prices excluding fuels.
attuned cause continue federal help highly inflation level officials producer reserve side situation tilt
Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
basis message nearly points raising trying
I think they are trying to say that they can still do their tightening 25 basis points at a time, but they still have a long way to go in raising rates. Essentially, the message is, 'if you think we're nearly done, think again'.
basis currently demand fall high higher housing increase move remaining seeing seen starts today trend unable versus
While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.
compared hard imports large near rate slow term
It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
best both stock suggesting worlds
It's really suggesting the best of both worlds for the stock market. What's not to like?
bad bonds good high maybe people solid
It was a good solid number, maybe not as high as some people were hoping, and not as bad as bonds had feared,