Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
blunt deficit effect export fully growth help likely months ought remain solid trade
Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.
autumn companies costs economic finished goods growth higher likely pass pressure winter
Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.
anytime apart consumer fall growth housing likely outcome spending trend
A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.
likely resume robust role third trade weight
In the third quarter, trade will resume its role as a weight on growth, but we are still likely to see a robust G.D.P. picture.
anytime consumers costs disappear economy energy higher labor likely markets seem soon taking toll
In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
demand domestic economic economies exports good growth inventory reasonably rebuilding strength strong tied
The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
economy exports growing nice rising
Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
bad beginning either february housing month months roll starts
February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
attuned cause continue federal help highly inflation level officials producer reserve side situation tilt
Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
expect focused language people rest surprise took update word
Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
benign dollar far imported inflation prices reading worry
There's not much to worry about as far as imported inflation is concerned. For as long as the dollar hangs in there, we should see a benign reading for import prices excluding fuels.
great imports picking trend
The trend is not going to be that great if imports are picking up in momentum.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.