Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
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Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
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We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
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It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,
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They are basically saying what every Fed official who has opened his mouth in the last month has said, ... The Fed is going to continue to nudge short-term interest rates, unless something disastrous happens.
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The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
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The Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage data in the coming months.
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The Fed tipped its hat to the fact that growth has slowed a bit, and blamed it on energy prices,
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If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.
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The Fed comments were fairly unsurprising. They indicated that there is more tightening ahead, and that the pace will be determined by upcoming data.
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The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
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Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
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February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
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Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,