Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
ahead bit confidence continue doubtful failure far further improvement likely negative progress recent rise run seems sharp stock weeks
As far as we can tell, confidence now seems to have run a bit ahead of the improvement in the stock market, and the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow to make further progress in recent weeks makes it doubtful that confidence will continue to rise at the May pace. The sharp rise in unemployment is likely to become a negative factor, too.
claims recent strongly trend weeks welcome
This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
certainly cutting exciting fed guess impression market might rates slash soon thinking thinks three weeks
My guess is it won't be very exciting because he already told us three weeks ago what he thinks. He's certainly not going to say anything that suggests the Fed might be thinking about not cutting rates as soon as the market thinks but I don't think he'll want to give the impression that they're going to slash rates even more aggressively.
bad bear july mind survey volatile weekend
Bear in mind this survey is always more volatile than the ISM, and there may be an outsized July 4 long weekend effect, too. But these are bad numbers.
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
claims downward effects full katrina likely next rise rita though trend week
Katrina and Rita effects still linger, though they are fading, ... Claims will likely rise next week as the full effects of Wilma hit, but the downward trend is very clear.
april assertion core economy gas impossible last measure performance pitiful rose since square week worst
Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction,
durable effect good report single
In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.
clearly hugely pointing vigorous
Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
across earnest expect gets gulf numbers rebuilding stronger year
Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.
bit chairman clearly dependent expects extent fed housing labor performance raise rates relative
The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
greater higher rates
the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.
book changed ease economy fed future likely tells
The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.