Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
august basis ease easing good point seems
Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
appear decline employment job layoffs newspapers output point remind soon worst
As the newspapers remind us every day, job layoffs are still high, but the point is that they now appear to be slowing, ... The worst is over, and the decline in output and employment will soon slow.
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.
both change good growth lifts point quarter report starting
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
clearly hugely pointing vigorous
Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
abruptly begun behind decline higher interest key lies months point presumably prices rates recent rise stagnant steady stock
This is a significant decline in confidence, ... Presumably the combination of higher interest rates and stagnant stock prices lies behind the moves, but the key point is that the steady rise in recent months has abruptly begun to reverse.
both brief chain change either huge maybe mystery numbers pointed revised sales square store
The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change of course.
appear data point recent renewed sales
Overall, the recent sales data appear to point to a renewed upturn in spending.
becoming evidence industrial point sector start turning
Every turning point has to start somewhere, and the evidence on the industrial sector is becoming overwhelming.
deficit easily key point
The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.