Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
hoped reasonably testimony upbeat
This is as upbeat a testimony as could reasonably have been hoped for.
deficit hopeful rise sustained trade
If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,
clearer easter havoc hope plays
A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
bit decline expect further hoped month next reason survey
Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.
benefits claims extended filing flow hoped people pushing slow towards trend underlying
We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,
excess falling hopeful inventory light orders output stronger
Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.
durable effect good report single
In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.
clearly hugely pointing vigorous
Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
across earnest expect gets gulf numbers rebuilding stronger year
Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.
bit chairman clearly dependent expects extent fed housing labor performance raise rates relative
The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
greater higher rates
the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.
book changed ease economy fed future likely tells
The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.
close deal fed hiking hook hoping housing january march sufficient though
The Fed will deal with (the housing-jobs mix) by hiking in January and March and hoping that the housing softening will be sufficient to get them off the hook by May, though I think that's a close call.
change clearly debate despite fed further hikes likely looking market minutes number outlook policy reason strong
The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.