Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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If you put the two months together it still looks as if retail sales were strong at the beginning of the year -- an average increase of 0.8 percent for each of the two months.
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The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
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We've been seeing improvement in the non-manufacturing side since late last year. We're seeing more activity in the travel sector and others that were hit really hard last year after the terror attacks.
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We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,
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Overall, confidence is still at a healthy level, up from where it was a year ago, but we did pull back a bit from the three-year high that we saw in June.
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The jobless claims drop shows good strength in the labor market at the end of the year. It shows that the economy has recovered after the hurricanes and is heading into the new year with good momentum and good job prospects.
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Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
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It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.