Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
good higher inflation news number revised running saw slightly year
The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
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We've been seeing improvement in the non-manufacturing side since late last year. We're seeing more activity in the travel sector and others that were hit really hard last year after the terror attacks.
bit compared optimistic people weak year
We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,
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Overall, confidence is still at a healthy level, up from where it was a year ago, but we did pull back a bit from the three-year high that we saw in June.
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
average beginning increase looks months percent retail sales strong together year
If you put the two months together it still looks as if retail sales were strong at the beginning of the year -- an average increase of 0.8 percent for each of the two months.
claims drop economy good heading job labor market momentum recovered shows strength year
The jobless claims drop shows good strength in the labor market at the end of the year. It shows that the economy has recovered after the hurricanes and is heading into the new year with good momentum and good job prospects.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
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Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
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There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
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Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
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We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
attitudes consumer daily dip energy january related rise seen sentiment small weekly
We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.