Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
consumer good items looks lower news prices reading seeing seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
good inflation items major news outside problem reading seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.
attitudes consumer daily dip energy january related rise seen sentiment small weekly
We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
against buy chinese currency decline dollar items price rise seen
If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.
couple data decline dollar fall help higher inflation last narrow risk seen suggesting trade
(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.
jobs looks lost seen share
It looks like we will have about a half-million lost jobs from the hurricanes and we have now seen the lion's share of that.
becoming beginning businesses component employment good increased last quite reading robust seen several willing
It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
bond cause economic fed market numbers raising seen thinking twice weak
The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
adjusting continue environment seen worst
It suggests our manufacturers are adjusting to a new environment and will continue to grow, ... I think we have (already) seen the worst for manufacturing.
above business expansion fed outlook pointing quite zero
The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is still above zero in January, pointing to expansion, but the expansion is not quite as broad.
costs generally higher numbers passed production running showing
The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
activity economic fourth last quarter saw supports view
This supports the view that first-quarter economic activity is much better than what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.
government growth inflation less saw
This suggests the government saw more real growth and less inflation in the quarter.
door fed leaves offset open rate report sort
This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.