Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
attitudes consumer daily dip energy january related rise seen sentiment small weekly
We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
against buy chinese currency decline dollar items price rise seen
If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.
consumer good items looks lower news prices reading seeing seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
good inflation items major news outside problem reading seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.
adjusting continue environment seen worst
It suggests our manufacturers are adjusting to a new environment and will continue to grow, ... I think we have (already) seen the worst for manufacturing.
becoming beginning businesses component employment good increased last quite reading robust seen several willing
It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
bond cause economic fed market numbers raising seen thinking twice weak
The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
jobs looks lost seen share
It looks like we will have about a half-million lost jobs from the hurricanes and we have now seen the lion's share of that.
couple data decline dollar fall help higher inflation last narrow risk seen suggesting trade
(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
confidence despite easy energy fewer high jobs people supporting worried
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
act concern economy fear fed generate inflation mean point seem
There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.