Gary Thayer

Gary Thayer
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This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.
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It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.
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It suggests the Fed is going to be watching closely to see if it is time to start taking back rate cuts. I don't think he is saying that is imminent, but his tone is that it might be sooner rather than later.
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It speeds up the time that the Fed will probably think about raising rates and that's negative for fixed-income.
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It's a good decline in prices for a change. It appears the big drop in energy prices during November has brought the overall inflation rate down considerably.
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The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.
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The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.
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The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,
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These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
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These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
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The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
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Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
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Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
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There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.