Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
door fed leaves offset open rate report sort
This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.
behind curve fed inflation mean rate
It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.
closely fed might rate rather saying sooner start taking time tone watching
It suggests the Fed is going to be watching closely to see if it is time to start taking back rate cuts. I don't think he is saying that is imminent, but his tone is that it might be sooner rather than later.
fed income negative raising rates speeds time
It speeds up the time that the Fed will probably think about raising rates and that's negative for fixed-income.
appears brought decline drop energy good inflation november overall prices rate
It's a good decline in prices for a change. It appears the big drop in energy prices during November has brought the overall inflation rate down considerably.
annual building instead percent personal possibly price rate revised
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.
bias fed hold level low maintain policy rates steady toward
The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.
economy falter fed looking oil prices raise rates reason
The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,
cut door economy fed indeed leave numbers open rates
These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
interest numbers raise rates urgent
These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
confidence despite easy energy fewer high jobs people supporting worried
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
act concern economy fear fed generate inflation mean point seem
There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.