Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
coast couple good gulf jobs loss months next numbers
We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,
basically despite economy fact lower prices production seeing weak
We still have a very weak world economy, despite the fact that the U.S. economy is still doing pretty good, ... We're seeing lower prices basically because there is more production out there than demand.
couple data decline dollar fall help higher inflation last narrow risk seen suggesting trade
(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.
component decline good looks moderation paid prices pricing seeing
The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.
change concerns dramatic fed generally numbers quick reduce
Generally I think these numbers could reduce some of the concerns about a quick or dramatic change in Fed policy.
companies inflation labor likely lower materials offset paying raw unit
Companies may be paying more for raw materials and energy, but that is at least partially being offset by lower unit labor costs. That, I think, is likely to keep inflation contained.
bond couple creeping fed inflation last market maybe months moving scenario traders worry
Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
cooling dropping help homes housing inventory market sales support sustained
If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.
cut door economy fed indeed leave numbers open rates
These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
interest numbers raise rates urgent
These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
behind drag economy inventory numbers period slightly
These numbers are slightly dated, but they show that the inventory liquidation period is over, and that (the) drag on the economy is probably behind us.
consumers convinced economy fact improved reflecting
It's not a big drop. It's reflecting the fact that the economy has improved this year, but not enough that consumers are convinced things are sufficiently better.
appear core costs declining energy federal fuel good inflation news passed prices reserve rising risk slightly
So core inflation is still rising slightly but doesn't appear to be a problem, and I think this is good news for the Federal Reserve . With energy prices declining it reduces the risk that fuel costs will be passed on to consumers.
data economy emphasis fed instead looking
The Fed will probably not put a lot of emphasis on this data and instead will be looking more at the economy after the hurricane.