Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
consumers energy holiday looks numbers optimistic reduced relief spending until weak
Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don't get some relief, it looks like it will be a very weak holiday season.
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If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.
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The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,
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We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,
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Clearly today's numbers show that the economy is still healthy and that the Federal Reserve probably will still be concerned about inflation for at least a couple more months.
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These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
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These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
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These numbers are slightly dated, but they show that the inventory liquidation period is over, and that (the) drag on the economy is probably behind us.
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Generally I think these numbers could reduce some of the concerns about a quick or dramatic change in Fed policy.
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The inflation numbers are really good. It's a very encouraging sign that consumers will be able to stretch their incomes a little bit further, and that bodes well for the economy going forward.
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The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.