Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
above business expansion fed outlook pointing quite zero
The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is still above zero in January, pointing to expansion, but the expansion is not quite as broad.
economy fed following healthy interest looks quite
It looks like the economy is still quite healthy and the Fed is probably following the appropriate course. The economy doesn't need low interest rates.
healthy looks quite spending start third
It looks like real spending was quite healthy for the start of the third quarter.
becoming beginning businesses component employment good increased last quite reading robust seen several willing
It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
costs generally higher numbers passed production running showing
The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
activity economic fourth last quarter saw supports view
This supports the view that first-quarter economic activity is much better than what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.
government growth inflation less saw
This suggests the government saw more real growth and less inflation in the quarter.
door fed leaves offset open rate report sort
This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.
economy federal good news poised slow
We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.
buyers levels looking risen risk willing yields
Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.
consumer good items looks lower news prices reading seeing seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
good inflation items major news outside problem reading seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.
good higher inflation news number revised running saw slightly year
The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
core good increased modestly news prices primarily recovery
We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.