Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
activity hard hit improvement last late others sector seeing side since terror travel year
We've been seeing improvement in the non-manufacturing side since late last year. We're seeing more activity in the travel sector and others that were hit really hard last year after the terror attacks.
bit compared optimistic people weak year
We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,
buyers levels looking risen risk willing yields
Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.
behind curve fed inflation mean rate
It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.
closely fed might rate rather saying sooner start taking time tone watching
It suggests the Fed is going to be watching closely to see if it is time to start taking back rate cuts. I don't think he is saying that is imminent, but his tone is that it might be sooner rather than later.
deficit drag economy economy-and-economics great help quarter revise third trade
It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,
adjusting continue environment seen worst
It suggests our manufacturers are adjusting to a new environment and will continue to grow, ... I think we have (already) seen the worst for manufacturing.
decline declines leading signal since three trend
It's not really troubling. It's the first decline since September. Probably more important is the trend that's in place, which is upward. You would probably need to see three or more declines in the leading index to signal a problem.
business economy good healthy shows side spending
It still shows a pretty healthy economy at this point. The manufacturing side of things and business spending will be good this year.
fed income negative raising rates speeds time
It speeds up the time that the Fed will probably think about raising rates and that's negative for fixed-income.
cooling data gradually home homes housing increases market moderate october price sales seeing suggesting
The October home sales data were strong, but we are seeing more moderate price increases for new homes suggesting that the housing market is gradually cooling off.
becoming beginning businesses component employment good increased last quite reading robust seen several willing
It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
create gets good news problems situation sort
It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
change employment fed likely number third views weak
The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.