Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
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We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.
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If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.
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The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is still above zero in January, pointing to expansion, but the expansion is not quite as broad.
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This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.
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We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.
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It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.
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It suggests the Fed is going to be watching closely to see if it is time to start taking back rate cuts. I don't think he is saying that is imminent, but his tone is that it might be sooner rather than later.
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It speeds up the time that the Fed will probably think about raising rates and that's negative for fixed-income.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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It looks like the economy is still quite healthy and the Fed is probably following the appropriate course. The economy doesn't need low interest rates.
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They're saying that some further policy firming may be needed, so it doesn't look like the Fed is seeing enough softness in the economy right now to warrant pausing.