Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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The values of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, as measured relative to the U.S. dollar, have been important signals of changing trends in global economic activity.
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The upturn in confidence is an encouraging sign that economic conditions are stabilizing after the hurricanes. Lower energy prices are helping, but the upturn in employment is also a plus.
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It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,
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But it looks like Mr. Greenspan is saying the slowdown in the economy will be short-lived and that suggests that the Fed will probably continue to raise rates.
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This supports the view that first-quarter economic activity is much better than what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.
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He's basically expressing the concerns that a central banker normally expresses at this point in the economic cycle, and that is that there are reasons to be cautious, ... Trading Places .
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Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
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It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
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These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.