Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
consumers current feeling looks news
It looks like consumers are feeling at least better about the current situation. But I still think there is a lot of uncertainty about the future. The geopolitical news is not very comforting.
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This may help increase the inflation-fighting credibility of the Fed before we replace the chairman.
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They're saying that some further policy firming may be needed, so it doesn't look like the Fed is seeing enough softness in the economy right now to warrant pausing.
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The October home sales data were strong, but we are seeing more moderate price increases for new homes suggesting that the housing market is gradually cooling off.
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They're very good numbers. It's telling us the manufacturing sector of the economy is clearly in recovery. It looks like we had not only a strong March but an even better February than the government previously estimated.
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The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.
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We were anticipating that we could see a little bit of an improvement in October because the rebuilding after the hurricanes appears to have started and energy prices have stabilized, but it appears that it will take a little longer for consumers to feel better about things.
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We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
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We're still in a seasonally weak period of year, where companies are trimming workforces. It weighs on people's minds when they hear about companies cutting back.
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Clearly today's numbers show that the economy is still healthy and that the Federal Reserve probably will still be concerned about inflation for at least a couple more months.
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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But it looks like Mr. Greenspan is saying the slowdown in the economy will be short-lived and that suggests that the Fed will probably continue to raise rates.
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If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.
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If unemployment continues to decline and the economy grows at an above-average pace ... I think they (the Fed) will be a little more concerned about bottlenecks.