Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
economy federal good news poised slow
We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.
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The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
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The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.
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The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
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We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
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Now that we're in a more open economy, and there's a lot more opportunity to get goods from overseas, if manufacturers are operating at full capacity, there's less likelihood that somebody will bid up prices at a domestic producer if they can get it somewhere else.
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I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.
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We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
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We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.
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We're not seeing a lot of strength in goods and services right now. Sales are mixed. Some categories are doing OK and others are weak. We're not seeing an outright decline.
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We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,
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The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.
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So core inflation is still rising slightly but doesn't appear to be a problem, and I think this is good news for the Federal Reserve . With energy prices declining it reduces the risk that fuel costs will be passed on to consumers.
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It looks like the economy is stabilizing after the hurricane-related stresses and we're heading into the holidays with an upturn in confidence that is encouraging and bodes well for the good consumer spending over the next month or so.