Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
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This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation. If the housing market is still healthy, policy-makers will probably continue to raise interest rates.
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This is probably going to keep the Fed concerned about inflation.
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If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.
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It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.
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Clearly today's numbers show that the economy is still healthy and that the Federal Reserve probably will still be concerned about inflation for at least a couple more months.
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If unemployment continues to decline and the economy grows at an above-average pace ... I think they (the Fed) will be a little more concerned about bottlenecks.
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Generally I think these numbers could reduce some of the concerns about a quick or dramatic change in Fed policy.
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He's basically expressing the concerns that a central banker normally expresses at this point in the economic cycle, and that is that there are reasons to be cautious, ... Trading Places .
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I think what he's concerned about is that the economy is on a good, healthy trajectory and if we do see some upward pressure on inflation somewhere down the road that that could cause the economy to heat up a bit.
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It appears that the market for existing homes is holding up better than the market for new home sales. We are still concerned about the housing market cooling off.
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He's mentioning that the dollar should stay firm and that's been a good factor for our economy. He's been concerned for some time about foreign investors wanting to keep their money here and if we keep our policies in line that should hold for a while.
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Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.