Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
bond couple creeping fed inflation last market maybe months moving scenario traders worry
Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is still above zero in January, pointing to expansion, but the expansion is not quite as broad.
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The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
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This supports the view that first-quarter economic activity is much better than what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.
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This suggests the government saw more real growth and less inflation in the quarter.
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This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.
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We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.
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Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.
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The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
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The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.
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The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
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We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
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We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.