Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
attitudes consumer daily dip energy january related rise seen sentiment small weekly
We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
against buy chinese currency decline dollar items price rise seen
If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.
buyers levels looking risen risk willing yields
Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.
along couple dollar extra giving power pressure pricing rise taking weaker
Along with the rise in non-fuel import prices, this suggests the weaker dollar is taking competitive pressure off of businesses, giving them the extra pricing power they didn't have a couple of years ago.
bond couple creeping fed inflation last market maybe months moving scenario traders worry
Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
becoming beginning businesses component employment good increased last quite reading robust seen several willing
It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
create gets good news problems situation sort
It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
bond core energy factor fed focused good inflation liked low market news primary reading recognize traders
The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
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These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
behind drag economy inventory numbers period slightly
These numbers are slightly dated, but they show that the inventory liquidation period is over, and that (the) drag on the economy is probably behind us.