Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
good job positive seeing shows strong
We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
clearly economy february good government looks march sector strong telling
They're very good numbers. It's telling us the manufacturing sector of the economy is clearly in recovery. It looks like we had not only a strong March but an even better February than the government previously estimated.
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I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
claims economy employment strong suggesting year
Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
average beginning increase looks months percent retail sales strong together year
If you put the two months together it still looks as if retail sales were strong at the beginning of the year -- an average increase of 0.8 percent for each of the two months.
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The lower-than-expected number of new jobless claims shows that the labor market is continuing to improve. It suggests that the economy is strong and that companies are feeling more comfortable about hanging on to workers.
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The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
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Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
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There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
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Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
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We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
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We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
again confidence consumers current feeling highest level prospects
Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.