Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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They're very good numbers. It's telling us the manufacturing sector of the economy is clearly in recovery. It looks like we had not only a strong March but an even better February than the government previously estimated.
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We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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If you put the two months together it still looks as if retail sales were strong at the beginning of the year -- an average increase of 0.8 percent for each of the two months.
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I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
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The lower-than-expected number of new jobless claims shows that the labor market is continuing to improve. It suggests that the economy is strong and that companies are feeling more comfortable about hanging on to workers.
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Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
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It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
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These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.