Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
component decline good looks moderation paid prices pricing seeing
The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.
economy fed further policy saying seeing softness
They're saying that some further policy firming may be needed, so it doesn't look like the Fed is seeing enough softness in the economy right now to warrant pausing.
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The October home sales data were strong, but we are seeing more moderate price increases for new homes suggesting that the housing market is gradually cooling off.
good job positive seeing shows strong
We're still seeing a strong economy, ... shows that we still have very good job creation. I think it's very encouraging and a positive thing for American business.
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The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
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We've been seeing improvement in the non-manufacturing side since late last year. We're seeing more activity in the travel sector and others that were hit really hard last year after the terror attacks.
basically despite economy fact lower prices production seeing weak
We still have a very weak world economy, despite the fact that the U.S. economy is still doing pretty good, ... We're seeing lower prices basically because there is more production out there than demand.
categories goods ok others outright sales seeing services strength
We're not seeing a lot of strength in goods and services right now. Sales are mixed. Some categories are doing OK and others are weak. We're not seeing an outright decline.
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Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
create gets good news problems situation sort
It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,