Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
concerned falter fed great greenspan heard last later might numbers retail sales upset week worried
If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.
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The October home sales data were strong, but we are seeing more moderate price increases for new homes suggesting that the housing market is gradually cooling off.
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We're not seeing a lot of strength in goods and services right now. Sales are mixed. Some categories are doing OK and others are weak. We're not seeing an outright decline.
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If sales can be sustained at this level, that would help support housing construction, but inventory of new homes is still increasing. The housing market is cooling off, but not dropping sharply.
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If you put the two months together it still looks as if retail sales were strong at the beginning of the year -- an average increase of 0.8 percent for each of the two months.
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The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
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Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
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There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
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Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
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We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
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We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
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Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.
anticipate fed good hold inflation news people stay
We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.