Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
consumer good items looks lower news prices reading seeing seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
bond core energy factor fed focused good inflation liked low market news primary reading recognize traders
The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
concern confidence consumers dropping early employment feeling low poorly recessions response shows similar situation terrorism
It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.
basically despite economy fact lower prices production seeing weak
We still have a very weak world economy, despite the fact that the U.S. economy is still doing pretty good, ... We're seeing lower prices basically because there is more production out there than demand.
conditions confidence economic employment energy lower prices sign
The upturn in confidence is an encouraging sign that economic conditions are stabilizing after the hurricanes. Lower energy prices are helping, but the upturn in employment is also a plus.
companies inflation labor likely lower materials offset paying raw unit
Companies may be paying more for raw materials and energy, but that is at least partially being offset by lower unit labor costs. That, I think, is likely to keep inflation contained.
bias fed hold level low maintain policy rates steady toward
The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.
component employment healthy lower november saw
The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
confidence despite easy energy fewer high jobs people supporting worried
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
act concern economy fear fed generate inflation mean point seem
There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
core good increased modestly news prices primarily recovery
We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.