Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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It still shows a pretty healthy economy at this point. The manufacturing side of things and business spending will be good this year.
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It looks like the economy is still quite healthy and the Fed is probably following the appropriate course. The economy doesn't need low interest rates.
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It looks like real spending was quite healthy for the start of the third quarter.
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Clearly today's numbers show that the economy is still healthy and that the Federal Reserve probably will still be concerned about inflation for at least a couple more months.
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Overall, confidence is still at a healthy level, up from where it was a year ago, but we did pull back a bit from the three-year high that we saw in June.
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I think what he's concerned about is that the economy is on a good, healthy trajectory and if we do see some upward pressure on inflation somewhere down the road that that could cause the economy to heat up a bit.
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Growth is still at a healthy level. There is no major slowdown.
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The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.
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Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
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It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
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It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,