Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
consistent decline fourth looks numbers quarter small
It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
confidence despite easy energy fewer high jobs people supporting worried
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
act concern economy fear fed generate inflation mean point seem
There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
core good increased modestly news prices primarily recovery
We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
attitudes consumer daily dip energy january related rise seen sentiment small weekly
We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
again confidence consumers current feeling highest level prospects
Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.
anticipate fed good hold inflation news people stay
We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.
buying consumers
It does show consumers are in a buying mood,
consumers employment happening negative possibly situation taking
It is encouraging that consumers are taking the negative things that are happening recently. Possibly the employment situation is outweighing other concerns.
orders weakness
Manufacturing is expanding, but not as broadly as in November. There was weakness in new orders and employment.
consumers energy holiday looks numbers optimistic reduced relief spending until weak
Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don't get some relief, it looks like it will be a very weak holiday season.