Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
bit looks midwest remained
It just looks like manufacturing in the Midwest cooled off a bit in January, but remained healthy.
appears bit consumers energy improvement longer october prices rebuilding
We were anticipating that we could see a little bit of an improvement in October because the rebuilding after the hurricanes appears to have started and energy prices have stabilized, but it appears that it will take a little longer for consumers to feel better about things.
bit compared optimistic people weak year
We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,
bit confidence healthy high pull saw year
Overall, confidence is still at a healthy level, up from where it was a year ago, but we did pull back a bit from the three-year high that we saw in June.
bit consumer economy headline looking number production quarter strong suggest
I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
bit consumers economy inflation numbers sign stretch
The inflation numbers are really good. It's a very encouraging sign that consumers will be able to stretch their incomes a little bit further, and that bodes well for the economy going forward.
bond couple creeping fed inflation last market maybe months moving scenario traders worry
Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important. The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.
becoming beginning businesses component employment good increased last quite reading robust seen several willing
It's still a good reading overall, but not quite as robust as we've seen in the last several months. The encouraging thing is that the employment component increased again. We are beginning to see businesses becoming a little more willing to hire.
create gets good news problems situation sort
It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.
change employment fed likely number third views weak
The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
bond core energy factor fed focused good inflation liked low market news primary reading recognize traders
The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.
bond cause economic fed market numbers raising seen thinking twice weak
The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
cut door economy fed indeed leave numbers open rates
These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
interest numbers raise rates urgent
These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.