Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
best economic pickup profits quarter spot sweet terms third
The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
basic consumer medium near ok risk term
The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.
adding board financial governors initially markets monetary players policy terms
They're adding to the intellectual firepower of the board of governors in terms of regulatory and financial markets issues, but initially they won't be important players in the monetary policy front.
basis chairman force open point rate term
You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.
carry consumer economy financial improvement labor looks market terms trying view whether worries
We've been trying to see whether the improvement of the economy and financial market will carry the day in terms of consumer confidence, or if worries about labor will dominate. It looks like the 'glass-half-full' view is winning.
bias couple easy fed next terms
The Fed is going to have a bias to be very easy in terms of policy, not just in the next couple of months, but well into the future.
chicago national number predictor terms
In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.