Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
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The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,
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What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
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With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
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We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
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We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
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These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
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Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
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Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
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We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.
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Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
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The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.
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The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
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Rubin was a great Treasury Secretary. Nobody in the Bush administration comes close.