Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
budgets capital cut demand dramatic point quite spending
Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.
coming consumer likely slow spending
It's very likely consumer spending will slow down significantly in coming months.
benefits consumers economic job labor market reasons recovery spend sustain
Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.
bills both economy hitting immediate impact moderate oil process recent shock slowing spending though value waiting winter
I think the economy is already in the process of slowing to a more moderate pace. Oil has both an immediate impact on spending and lagging impacts. Even though oil has stabilized in recent weeks, we still have to play out effects. We're still waiting for the shock value of the winter heating bills hitting people.
adjusted bring consumer impact rates rising slowing spending tremendous
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.
anywhere believe capital catalyst point recovery spending
As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight.
ahead almost consumer continue effects energy pressure slow somewhat spending vulnerable year
The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.