Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
both confidence fed financial greater less market means retirement risk somewhat
While the Fed is more than one person, Mr. Greenspan's retirement means less confidence in the Fed, with somewhat greater risk of both financial market instability and inflation.
growth moderate risk year
It suggests moderate growth in the year ahead, but I don't think there's much risk of a 'double-dip' recession.
accident along deficit factor gradual gradually lingering risk sitting trade
That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?
basic consumer medium near ok risk term
The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.
bond chronic economic global market potent risk
There's a chronic risk to the bond market from global economic recovery. Probably the most potent story is Japan.
data dictate economy further gradual inflation markets risks step stop strong towards
It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.
adds case cautious demanding generally higher investors returns risk taking view
It generally just adds to the case for investors taking a little more cautious view on risk and demanding higher returns on investments.
clearly economy economy-and-economics inflation momentum plenty risk
Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.
cautious everybody line locked optimism risks
The Fed's kind of locked into this cautious optimism mode. Everybody there has the same line about how once geopolitical risks abate things will get better.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.