Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
chance cut fed four gone hold might months period rates reasonable sitting
We've gone from a period where there was a reasonable chance the Fed might cut rates just four months ago to one in which the Fed is very much comfortably just sitting on hold for now.
economic economy hold hope looking month resolved stage war
Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery.
corporate force growth holding line matter profit profits recent seen slow stay work workers
I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
closely dictionary figure general hold keeping keeps language less rates sounds study though tone
They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish. Being 'patient' sounds a little less like they're keeping rates on hold than a 'considerable period' -- though you'd need to study a dictionary closely to figure that out.
ahead bit data fed given holding looking markets meeting rather reacting sort toward uncertain verdict waiting
The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings. They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath.
business certainly economy fairly general half holding increase lack main optimistic past reflects seeing survey year
The main thing holding back the economy in the past year and a half has been a lack of business confidence, and now we're seeing these surveys with a fairly optimistic take on the economy. The non-manufacturing survey certainly reflects the general increase in confidence, and that's a self-fulfilling thing.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.