Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
clearly consumer economy growth operating percent recovery talking
You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market. The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
aggregate attention clearly creation equity fed focus focused stock wealth
Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market, ... The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.
clearly economy economy-and-economics inflation momentum plenty risk
Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.
advance clarity clear early expect fed iraq march means meeting move news quite seems ugly
The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.
clearly recovery
The idea that the recovery has started has been clearly confirmed. But there's no way to know the sustainability of the recovery.
attitude economy happened screw state trying
What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
benign inflation remain
We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
drop fed language number reasons
We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
claims continued people rate sign work
These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
becoming belongs biggest boom center economic engine estate front future goes growth hot housing market page reason reports research risk topic
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.
coming growth next wage
We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.