Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
absence core few given good happening months pause rather risk seems time
Given the absence of core inflation, it seems to me as good a time as any to pause and see what's happening for a few months rather than overshoot and risk a recession.
appear businesses increase increasing labor profits quite seem
Businesses seem to be doing everything they can to increase profits without increasing hiring. Unfortunately for the labor market, they appear to be quite successful.
alan call certainly early greenspan heading help inflation relax report seem sign sleep smooth soft turn wage
It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
aggressive almost certainly credible deal delayed demand effects enjoy farther faster fed monetary problem rates rise seems start year
When demand does start to rebound, the Fed will have to deal with the delayed effects of a year of aggressive monetary stimulus. Short-term rates will almost certainly have to rise faster and farther than seems credible today. Of course, this is a problem that we now feel we would enjoy facing.
absolutely economic greenspan growth jobs perfect pulling seemed signs soft
This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
corporate flow gains job market rapid seems until wages
In principle, rapid productivity should make wages rise, but it seems that until the job market tightens up a bit, all the productivity gains flow to corporate profits.
crashed cut emergency evidence happened market panic rate treat yesterday
It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.
road worst
The worst is over. We're on the road to recovery.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
bit lighter perhaps
Perhaps Santa's sleigh was a bit lighter than we thought.
elf full operating workshop
Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
clear evidence next recovery though time
Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
awful dropped force people pulled though waiting work
Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.