Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
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The Greenspan Fed has inaction down to a fine art. They stood by through much of the late 1990s, allowing a very beneficial reduction in unemployment without suffering any inflationary consequences. When they do have to move, they do so quickly and surgically.
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There are a lot of untied ends so far, but we want to get these students into school, in a stable environment, as soon as possible. We want these students to be in an environment where they will be cared for - that will help them rebuild their lives and give them a sense that they are moving on.
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There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.
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We knew that it was a wet month and that rain tends to keep people away from shopping, so I thing a large part of this is actually a weather story.
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We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.
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Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
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Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
momentum quite
Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.
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At this point I am guessing that the Fed is pretty committed to raising rates in January but after that all bets are off.
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The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
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We were expecting to celebrate New Year's and instead got slapped with a pink slip.
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While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
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You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
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There is still a big backlog to be made up before it feels like a tight job market. Clearly it's a tighter job market than it was a year ago, and if we continue to add a million jobs a quarter, we'll move in that direction. But I think it will take a little bit of time.