Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
bets committed fed guessing january point raising rates
At this point I am guessing that the Fed is pretty committed to raising rates in January but after that all bets are off.
brakes earnings economy either employment fed greenspan growth higher inflation needs point sit slowing starting tap weak
Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.
backward becoming both confidence consumer data downward easing fed jobs losses slip spiral sustain worries
What worries me the most is a slip backward becoming a spiral downward. Jobs are the linchpin of both consumer confidence and consumer spending. We can't sustain many more losses like this without that downward spiral getting started. This is the kind of data that could make the Fed think about easing again.
cut economy fed free less rate weak
Today's rate cut was no surprise. Even the half-point cut was more or less expected. In fact, the economy is still weak enough for the Fed to feel free to keep easing.
circumstance dime fed instrument monetary perfect policy pull pushing soon spending starts turn
Monetary policy is the perfect instrument for these circumstances. The Fed can keep pushing as needed, but still can turn on a dime and pull back as soon as spending starts to rebound.
clearly ease fed free good inclined means
It's clearly good news. Clearly it means that the Fed is still free to ease as much as they are inclined to.
aggressive almost certainly credible deal delayed demand effects enjoy farther faster fed monetary problem rates rise seems start year
When demand does start to rebound, the Fed will have to deal with the delayed effects of a year of aggressive monetary stimulus. Short-term rates will almost certainly have to rise faster and farther than seems credible today. Of course, this is a problem that we now feel we would enjoy facing.
chairman fed greenspan money period pumping start third toward weakness
I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
ahead baked beyond cranking current cut faster fed forces interest late looking rates risk serious
Looking ahead beyond the current gloom, there is a serious risk that we already have inflationary forces baked into the system. By late spring, the Fed could be cranking up interest rates even faster than they cut them.
cutting fed number rates relax
This is kind of number that will let the Fed relax and keep cutting rates as long as they see a need.
coming fairly fed percent starts sticks
If unemployment sticks at about 6.0 percent and starts coming down, the Fed will probably feel it has to start tightening fairly soon.
believe concern discount economy fed hard imagine inflation legitimate pumping starts
I don't think we can discount the legitimate concern that the Fed has been pumping too much liquidity into the economy. It may be that they have to backpedal furiously as the economy starts to recover. Inflation has been down for so long, it may be hard to imagine it ever getting back up -- but you better believe it still can.
crazy faster fed pressure raise rates
I don't think the Fed is under pressure to raise rates faster than they have been but I think they'd be crazy to think that they should be done tightening.