Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
aggressive almost certainly credible deal delayed demand effects enjoy farther faster fed monetary problem rates rise seems start year
When demand does start to rebound, the Fed will have to deal with the delayed effects of a year of aggressive monetary stimulus. Short-term rates will almost certainly have to rise faster and farther than seems credible today. Of course, this is a problem that we now feel we would enjoy facing.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
bark concern deficits economic far near record shows simply spark threat trade worse
Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.
consumer far happy holidays job last quite sentiment tide turning
With the tide turning on job growth, consumer sentiment going into the holidays is far better than last year, even if it's not quite happy days are here again.
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.
inflation problem stage
It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.
almost anywhere growth looking shocking
It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
buying christmas close coming consumer gauge industry number onto patterns perhaps represents retail sales season sentiment shopping since year
The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.
cutting fed number rates relax
This is kind of number that will let the Fed relax and keep cutting rates as long as they see a need.
consistent consumer consumers economy half pulling road second spending view
This is consistent with the view that the U.S. economy really is on the road to recovery. Consumers are not pulling back. Consumer spending is going to get us into a second half 2001 rebound.
carry chairman fed latitude wants
The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to.
absorb increase jobs labor month natural numbers order positive rate rather smaller takes
It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.
clearly ease fed free good inclined means
It's clearly good news. Clearly it means that the Fed is still free to ease as much as they are inclined to.
benign
It's really a benign number, so no real new news.