Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
bail deciding fourth good late mid people results starting true whether
By mid to late October, you're getting into the fourth quarter, and people are starting to look at their year-end results and deciding whether they can bail out now and still look good for the year. That's going to be as true now as it was (in 1987).
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.
inflation problem stage
It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.
almost anywhere growth looking shocking
It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
buying christmas close coming consumer gauge industry number onto patterns perhaps represents retail sales season sentiment shopping since year
The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.
cutting fed number rates relax
This is kind of number that will let the Fed relax and keep cutting rates as long as they see a need.
consistent consumer consumers economy half pulling road second spending view
This is consistent with the view that the U.S. economy really is on the road to recovery. Consumers are not pulling back. Consumer spending is going to get us into a second half 2001 rebound.
carry chairman fed latitude wants
The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to.
absorb increase jobs labor month natural numbers order positive rate rather smaller takes
It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.
clearly ease fed free good inclined means
It's clearly good news. Clearly it means that the Fed is still free to ease as much as they are inclined to.
benign
It's really a benign number, so no real new news.
consumer economy expansion keeping true
It's reassuring. It is true that the consumer is the only part of the economy that's keeping the expansion going right now.
assume gets jump outlook start tend time worry
Any time there's a jump in one index, you start to worry about the other one. And any time one of them is tame, you tend to assume that the outlook for the other gets better.
indicator time
Every time you see another indicator that they (consumers) are still spending, that's encouraging.