Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
aggressive almost certainly credible deal delayed demand effects enjoy farther faster fed monetary problem rates rise seems start year
When demand does start to rebound, the Fed will have to deal with the delayed effects of a year of aggressive monetary stimulus. Short-term rates will almost certainly have to rise faster and farther than seems credible today. Of course, this is a problem that we now feel we would enjoy facing.
cared ends environment help lives moving rebuild soon stable students
There are a lot of untied ends so far, but we want to get these students into school, in a stable environment, as soon as possible. We want these students to be in an environment where they will be cared for - that will help them rebuild their lives and give them a sense that they are moving on.
appeal bad certain inflation nice number round stop
There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.
knew large month people rain tends weather wet
We knew that it was a wet month and that rain tends to keep people away from shopping, so I thing a large part of this is actually a weather story.
anytime coming domestic either full hard soft soon spinning stuck
We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.
clear evidence next recovery though time
Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
awful dropped force people pulled though waiting work
Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
momentum quite
Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.
bets committed fed guessing january point raising rates
At this point I am guessing that the Fed is pretty committed to raising rates in January but after that all bets are off.
cannot continue demand fact good growth happening jobs news translate workers
The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
celebrate expecting instead pink
We were expecting to celebrate New Year's and instead got slapped with a pink slip.
added continue economy employment fuel gain higher jobs kicks labor last link market recovery slowly weakest
While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
coming jobs large looking number people seeing worth
You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.