Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way. The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way, ... The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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There's going to be this flip-flop next week and continually until we get through earnings season, going from earnings to worrying about the economic slowdown and what inflation brings so I think next week is going to be marked by that. We're getting to the point where the market needs good earnings. It needs to have a catalyst to get the growth sector moving again.
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You have a market on eggshells. The stories that make the rounds are being treated as sell first and then worry about whether they're true.
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It's not the quarter-percentage point increase that is worrying people. We are all waiting to see if the commentary will point to one, two or more interest-rate increases.
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It will be interesting to see how quickly the market goes to worrying about what the Fed will do in August. We've just seen one month's statistics showing the economy is slowing.
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That's going to dominate the market today until we get more information. A potential story like this from an OPEC producer brings up the worry that oil can spike to new highs very easily. We see the reaction in equities when oil goes higher. It stops equities in their tracks.
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There was worry that something stronger would keep the Fed going. There is a bit of concern with a bit of wage inflation, which corroborates yesterday's poor productivity numbers.
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Our look for the rest of the year is we're going to rally and worry. We're going to rally and worry some more. And we're going to rally again. I think the concern or the 'worry period' that we're now entering is this cyclical issue again, after this run up in the semiconductors sector and the third-quarter prerelease season, which we're quickly coming to. And I think that's going to give the opportunity for the next run up in the marketplace, which should come somewhere over the next few weeks into the election. The good news, as you pointed out, is that the Fed's done,
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There's worry about higher interest rates. The bond market has been very weak, and we can assume the higher interest rates are signs of a rebounding economy. This gives people a feeling of comfort, but we also worry about how rates are going to go and whether it will crimp economic activity further down the road.
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We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
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It was a little better than a typical September, but it didn't provide any big positive surprises.
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These companies' businesses haven't collapsed like tech companies' did. But they've withered and they're losing their reputations and their investor bases.