Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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The 10-year bond looks like it's headed higher, so I think the feeling is starting to pervade Wall Street that economy's fine and interest rates are heading higher. But the market has (also) been choppy and struggling with some key technical levels.
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It's nothing more than rotation. I think people on Wall Street can no longer walk and chew gum at the same time.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought. The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought, ... The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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They (the Fed) did indicate that there could be further cuts and that was something Wall Street was starting to believe wasn't going to be the expected outcome. This is part of the recovery process. It's not going to happen immediately but this is the Fed understanding the weakness in the economy.
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This perception creates a negative opinion on Wall Street. But over time, it will help the equity markets because it is reflexive of a better earnings picture.
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There are still tough times ahead in technology, ... Wall Street wants to see only greater-than-expected earnings.
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Cisco's story was that inventory concerns and demand driven problems are not fixable as early as Wall Street expected, ... People are understanding the impact of what Cisco said. Wall Street wants to believe things are rosy in that sector and they're just not.
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The intermediate background look in terms of interest rates peaking and the economy slowing to a more sustainable pace without any undue harm is slowly going to play itself out. I would be very shocked if the GDP came in anywhere higher than estimates because Wall Street is already expressing its confidence that the economy is slowing down.
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I don't think there's anything that will deter the Fed from lowering interest rates in August. I think the story is going to be the continuing belief that there is a mixed story on Wall Street that has been brought out, in terms of technology. The visibility story is changing somewhat to the 'we see the bottom in sight' scenario.
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The dreaded whisper number -- that's Wall Street for you. This is day-to-day noise. Normal profit taking in the technology area can be considered to be 20 percent to 30 percent moves.
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The election is really undecided, and I think that keeps the market locked in a range right now. Day to day this week, I think people need to watch the price of energy and see how Wall Street is looking to position itself for after the election.
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We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.