Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way. The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way, ... The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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Energy prices, which were lower, have turned up. I think we quickly came to the reality that a less-than-expected outcome from Hurricane Rita doesn't take away from the worse-than-expected outcome from Katrina.
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It will be interesting to see how quickly the market goes to worrying about what the Fed will do in August. We've just seen one month's statistics showing the economy is slowing.
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This puts 5.25% on the fed funds rate back on the table. It's not the job of anyone to interpret what a market's reaction to a comment will be. This has added volatility on a day-to-day basis, so opinions can change that quickly when they shouldn't. It's great to be flexible, but it's not healthy to investors.
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The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact. This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
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The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact, ... This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
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I think it's just more of the same. The Nasdaq is quickly approaching 5,000 and it's hard to divert money back to traditional stocks when the opportunities are so phenomenal in the new world economy.
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Our look for the rest of the year is we're going to rally and worry. We're going to rally and worry some more. And we're going to rally again. I think the concern or the 'worry period' that we're now entering is this cyclical issue again, after this run up in the semiconductors sector and the third-quarter prerelease season, which we're quickly coming to. And I think that's going to give the opportunity for the next run up in the marketplace, which should come somewhere over the next few weeks into the election. The good news, as you pointed out, is that the Fed's done,
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The market has quickly forgotten yesterday's good commentary from Mr. Greenspan and has focused on a quality-of-earnings issue. It's almost like investors are looking for a reason to sell.
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We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
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It was a little better than a typical September, but it didn't provide any big positive surprises.
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These companies' businesses haven't collapsed like tech companies' did. But they've withered and they're losing their reputations and their investor bases.