Barry Hyman

Barry Hyman
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This number is very startling. It is the preliminary, so it is subject to fairly substantive revision. These numbers may translate into earnings risk, but may also dissuade an aggressive Federal Reserve. The chain deflator was higher than expected, which may take the steam out of our rally. This may dampen enthusiasm, but not kill it.
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This number is very startling. It is preliminary, so it is subject to fairly substantive revision. These numbers may translate into earnings risk, but may also dissuade an aggressive Federal Reserve.
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Without any major tech stories, the economic numbers are going to take center stage. It started on Friday with the first peek at the GDP (gross domestic product) for the first quarter.
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Retail sales numbers were stronger than expected, and that shows that consumer are still spending, and I think that is weighing on the market today and it should. But it's not weighing on the Nasdaq, where you're seeing those really good earnings reports. People really regard tech as the place to make money.
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Now we're going to see more pressure on the bond market and an already stressed equity market. There's a lot of concern and we're seeing some defensive investing. This number shows that the Fed will continue raising rates. Numbers like this show that we're in store for two more hikes.
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Next week's retail sales numbers and inflation numbers are going to be some key statistics to give us a little bit more input into where the Fed stands.
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The numbers look good, but it's two quarters in a row that analysts are skeptical about how they're reporting their numbers.
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It's going to be another confidence building story the closer we get to the Fed meeting. I believe that the unemployment rate and the NAPM numbers will be the key numbers.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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The payroll numbers were extraordinarily supportive for the economy. But counter to that, the report brings back the Fed and inflationary prospects, and that's why you see just a modest up day.
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You have the correct sectors continuing to lead, which are technology and financials. The Michigan numbers were good today, and oil prices are down.
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I think next week it will be important to see two things: solid numbers out of growth companies and seeing still a steady stream of economic numbers showing the required slowing of the economy with no inflation.
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The retail sales numbers we saw should have presumed a rally but we had some selling in Hewlett-Packard and NBC Internet. During the day, people started to realize that retail sales were good news.
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The market is going to want to see in those numbers some clues that the PC market is picking up post-Y2K.