Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
economy-and-economics higher implies interest strong
Better-than-expected LEI implies a strong economy. It also implies higher interest rates.
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This number is very startling. It is the preliminary, so it is subject to fairly substantive revision. These numbers may translate into earnings risk, but may also dissuade an aggressive Federal Reserve. The chain deflator was higher than expected, which may take the steam out of our rally. This may dampen enthusiasm, but not kill it.
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What you are seeing is the likelihood that interest rates will not go higher next week, making it easier to give these big cap growth stocks high valuations.
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I would characterize this as a correction long in coming. We're coming off of this tremendous run, plus you've got oil prices near all-time highs and the prospect of higher interest rates through the end of the year, and so you're seeing some profit taking.
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We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices. But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation.
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There is also a little bit of nervousness ahead of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to be strong. It just focuses investors on the higher interest rates that are still in the offing.
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It's going to be push-pull this week, ... Will earnings be strong and drive the Dow to 12,000, or will higher rates work to push the Dow lower?
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The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact. This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
absolutely belief coming core economic euro exist higher market oil overnight price problem quickly reason root searching weaker
The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact, ... This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
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There's concern in the markets that higher oil prices may hurt the economy.
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Higher interest rates are an impediment to companies where cost is important and that's Old Economy stocks, ... What we are seeing is a defensive move into technology stocks.
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The intermediate background look in terms of interest rates peaking and the economy slowing to a more sustainable pace without any undue harm is slowly going to play itself out. I would be very shocked if the GDP came in anywhere higher than estimates because Wall Street is already expressing its confidence that the economy is slowing down.
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There's worry about higher interest rates. The bond market has been very weak, and we can assume the higher interest rates are signs of a rebounding economy. This gives people a feeling of comfort, but we also worry about how rates are going to go and whether it will crimp economic activity further down the road.
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The fourth quarter is going to be volatile and trying. I don't think the market has fully discounted all the negatives in front of it, including the hurricanes' impact on the economy, higher energy prices on corporate profits, and higher inflation.