Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
close curve deal extremely federal high hope market meeting next note rally recession reserve slowing until worried yield
It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way. The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
energy fed hurricane major market quickly risks seemed worry
I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way, ... The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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Earnings are coming in better than expected, and they're helping the market preserve the rally, but the overriding concern to me is high energy prices and what the Fed is doing.
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This number is very startling. It is the preliminary, so it is subject to fairly substantive revision. These numbers may translate into earnings risk, but may also dissuade an aggressive Federal Reserve. The chain deflator was higher than expected, which may take the steam out of our rally. This may dampen enthusiasm, but not kill it.
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This number is very startling. It is preliminary, so it is subject to fairly substantive revision. These numbers may translate into earnings risk, but may also dissuade an aggressive Federal Reserve.
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There's no (economic) stabilization yet, but it now brings the possibility of continued aggressive Fed moves. We're four cuts deep into an interest rate cycle and we're going to get a fifth. That's going to help the economy down the road -- it's not a question of 'Will it?' but it's a question of when.
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Most of the growth stories are not performing today and that is how we'll go into the Fed meeting. There's still very little conviction in the market.
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I think this week's performance has been very indicative of a bottom. The market made a lot of sense this week, since the Fed really helped to ensure the positive psychology that is needed to maintain consumer and investor confidence.
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We need some inference from the Fed that interest rates beyond June are in doubt,
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We have an aggressive Fed and an aggressive Justice Department thinking perhaps that all things technological, that have a dominant share of the market, could be considered anti-competitive.
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We think 3.5 percent is a good point for the Fed to take a break to measure the economy and the impact of its rate hikes. If the economy does appear to be picking up, they could start raising again.
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I believe the Fed will engineer this slowdown and it won't result in a hard landing,
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If we get any guidance that the Fed would be guiding toward a neutral stance, that could be a (positive) impetus, ... The economy is slowing but not recessing and the Fed will be there if necessary.