Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
activity everybody expects people vacation
Everybody expects people to come back from vacation and the activity to start. The first day is a very lackluster day and people are just getting used to stuff.
companies expect greatest growth matters number overweight percent represent sector tech weight year
Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
concerned direct economy effect either expect hikes interest line looking market number rate remain tame
I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.
ahead bit employment expected higher interest investors rates
There is also a little bit of nervousness ahead of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to be strong. It just focuses investors on the higher interest rates that are still in the offing.
commentary expected percent quarter seems
With an expected quarter percent rise, the commentary seems a little more hawkish than expected.
change dominated expect federal percentage quarter reserve trading waiting
Trading is going to be dominated by waiting for the Federal Reserve Board. We still expect the Fed to go a quarter of a percentage point, and no change in language.
believe cuts expected fed further happen indicate recovery starting street understanding wall weakness
They (the Fed) did indicate that there could be further cuts and that was something Wall Street was starting to believe wasn't going to be the expected outcome. This is part of the recovery process. It's not going to happen immediately but this is the Fed understanding the weakness in the economy.
bombarded earnings expect market problems
This market has got problems and it's got earnings problems and it has not discounted yet. You have to expect to be bombarded every day by more earnings warnings in technology.
expected profit run surprised
This is the expected outcome. We have run up to this. I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking.
concern economy expect fed meetings rally seem slightly talk
I think there's a concern about the economy so I think you'll see conciliatory talk (from Fed governors). We seem to rally into Fed meetings so I would expect a slightly upward bias.
anywhere economic expected fourth gets gives negative quarter revised stays within
If the GDP gets revised downward, it's a negative for the markets. If it stays anywhere within the expected range, it gives credence to that the fourth quarter was some economic trough.
believe cyclical economy evidence expected gain good slowing stocks strength
I do believe it's the weakening economy, where cyclical stocks can only gain strength on the anticipation of an economy solidifying, and any evidence of an economy slowing more than expected is not good news.
band break extremely few last narrow stuck
We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
close curve deal extremely federal high hope market meeting next note rally recession reserve slowing until worried yield
It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.