Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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The only way I can see why the market is not reacting to several negatives out there is the anticipation of one more (rate) hike and we're done.
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This puts 5.25% on the fed funds rate back on the table. It's not the job of anyone to interpret what a market's reaction to a comment will be. This has added volatility on a day-to-day basis, so opinions can change that quickly when they shouldn't. It's great to be flexible, but it's not healthy to investors.
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The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact. This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
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The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact, ... This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
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The price of energy should spook investors. So far, the market is foolishly accepting of the price of oil without a negative reaction as long as it doesn't break out to a new high.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
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The reflection of what Cisco says is an absolute reflection of the economy. If Cisco is giving this forward look beyond the first quarter, then the suspicion of a possibility for a second half upturn may not be as evident.
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I think the market had a decent week but without any fundamental backing, the rally doesn't really have tremendous upside.
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There is a substantial group of investors who believe the stock market will start to anticipate an (economic) recovery. The more rate cuts we get, the more likely the recovery is -- I'm looking at this as a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
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Trading is going to be dominated by waiting for the Federal Reserve Board. We still expect the Fed to go a quarter of a percentage point, and no change in language.
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Traders are just lightening their positions a little bit. The holidays are compressing the activity and I think most of the (options) rolling over you saw yesterday.
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Traders are dominating this market when investors are just waiting for these pre-releases to really reveal what these companies look like. We're just waiting for the first signs of a turn and there's little optimism as we go through this pre-release season and no one is focusing on the second-half of the year (2001).